Christopher J. Bruce, PhD
Christopher Bruce is a Professor of Economics at the University of Calgary. His teaching responsibilities include microeconomic theory, labour economics, economics of collective bargaining, and economic analysis of law. He has a B.A. from the University of Victoria, an M.A. from Carleton University, and a Ph.D. from Cambridge University. Dr. Bruce has written five books, edited three others, and published over three dozen articles in academic journals. He is also the founder and president of Economica Ltd., where he has prepared, or supervised the preparation of, over 4,000 economic reports concerning loss of earnings capacity, costs of care, and loss of dependency. Dr. Bruce has been accepted as an expert witness in more than 70 actions before the courts of British Columbia and Alberta.
email: cjbruce@ucalgary.ca
Christopher's curriculum vitae (a pdf document)
Expert Witness articles that Chris has authored or co-authored:
(Reverse chronological order – most recent articles at the top)
-
Premiums, Profits, and Costs of Business in Alberta’s Automobile Insurance Industry, 1996–2006
- Winter 2008 Expert Witness (13.2)
- In February 2008, Economica was retained by the Canadian Bar Association to prepare a series of reports on automobile insurance premiums in five provinces: Alberta, Ontario, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia. We have now completed this work, having prepared two reports on Alberta and one on each of the other four provinces. The first article in this newsletter summarises the main findings of the first of these reports, Alberta’s Minor Injury Regulation: Automobile Insurance Profits, Premium Rates, and Costs.
-
Examination of Expert Witnesses
- Winter 2008 Expert Witness (13.2)
- This article is based on Chris Bruce and Derek Aldridge’s experience as panelists at a Legal Education Society of Alberta seminar on examination of expert witnesses. The article offers some recommendations regarding the examination of expert economists.
-
The Discount Rate Revisited (Spring 2008)
- Spring 2008 Expert Witness (13.1)
- This article reports on our latest survey of discount rates. We conclude that no changes to our existing discount rate assumptions are warranted, though a reduction in our long-term rate may be necessary in the future if the observed long-term rates remain significantly lower than our assumed rate.
-
The Impact of Childhood Sexual Abuse
on the Educational Attainment and Adult Earnings of
Canadian Women
- Autumn 2007 Expert Witness (12.2)
- This article concerns sexual abuse cases and the difficult task of determining the impact that the harm has had on the plaintiff’s earning capacity. Christopher Bruce and his colleague from the University of Calgary, Daniel Gordon, found that, on average, sexual abuse is not associated with lower educational levels or lower adult incomes among victims.
-
The Impact of Poor Health on
Retirement Age
- Autumn 2007 Expert Witness (12.2)
- In this article Christopher Bruce examines the evidence supporting a claim that poor health will lead to earlier retirement.
-
Forecasting the long-term interest
rate on Government of Canada bonds:
“market-based” versus
“conservative” investment
- Spring 2007 Expert Witness (12.1)
- In the article Christopher Bruce examines a subtle issue relating to interest rates. He explains the difference between the interest rates realised by buying bonds and holding them to maturity, and selling and re-buying before maturity. These approaches will result in different estimates of historical interest rates.
-
The Cost of Household Services,
Alberta, 2006: A Survey
- Summer 2006 Expert Witness (11.2)
- The article reports the results of a survey we conducted in late 2005 and early 2006. We obtained housecleaning, handyman, landscaping and snow removal, child care, and home care/meal preparation rates from a large sample of agencies and individuals in both Calgary and Edmonton, and housecleaning rates for smaller samples in Lethbridge, Grande Prairie, and Red Deer. In the article we present our findings and explain how we will apply these results in our calculations.
-
Estimating non-discriminatory
lifetime earnings for young females
- Spring 2006 Expert Witness (11.1)
- This articles examines the sources of male/female earnings differentials that might arise from differences between the sexes in labour force participation rates, part-time hours, and retirement ages. It concludes that, even in the absence of labour market discrimination, women may earn 25 to 35 percent less than men.
-
Death and Retirement: Allowing for
Uncertainty
- Autumn 2005 Expert Witness (10.3)
- In this article Christopher Bruce explains how experts deal with situations in which there is uncertainty about the plaintiff’s future income path – such as when it is not known whether the plaintiff will recover from his or her injuries. He also comments on an error that experts often make when dealing with such uncertainty.
-
Estimating the Impact of Mid-Career
Retraining
- Summer 2005 Expert Witness (10.2)
- In this article we investigate an issue we have not seen raised anywhere else in the literature on personal injury damages: When an individual is injured in their 30s or early 40s, and has to retrain for a new career, will that individual begin in that career at a salary equivalent to those of individuals with the same age as the plaintiff? Or will the plaintiff’s starting salary be more similar to those of younger individuals in the new career – perhaps 25–29 year-olds? The authors present information from a recent study that investigated this question; and comment on the use of this study for personal injury cases.
-
The Discount Rate Revisited
- Summer 2005 Expert Witness (10.2)
- In this article we review the recent evidence – both statistical and theoretical – concerning the discount rate (or real rate of interest). We review a number of different interest rates for each quarter since 1995 and find that every series has trended downward virtually continuously over the entire period. We then review the theoretical arguments that have been put forward to explain why this trend has been observed; and ask whether it is better to base a forecast of future rates of interest on the rates that are currently being observed or on averages of historical rates. We conclude that it would be inappropriate to rely on historical figures and instead we recommend use of multiple rates, based on the rates currently available for a variety of short- and long-term government bonds.
-
The Impact of Disability on
Earnings: Reliable Data
- Spring 2005 Expert Witness (10.1)
- From his
analysis in his previous
article, Dr. Bruce concluded that, to be reliable,
evidence must be based on data sets that meet two
criteria: First, the number of observations must be large
enough that one can be certain that a representative
sample has been drawn. And, second, the data set must
include individuals drawn from all of the comparison
groups that are of interest.
In this article Dr. Bruce uses these two criteria to identify a set of research reports that he considers to be reliable; and he summarises the findings of these reports with respect to the impact that each of spinal cord injuries, chronic pain, visual and hearing disabilities, and brain damage have on both education and earnings.
-
The Reliability of Statistical
Evidence Concerning the Impact of Disability
- Winter 2004 Expert Witness (9.4)
- In the article Christopher Bruce provides a caution concerning the acceptance of statistical evidence about disability. Dr. Bruce argues that the courts and opposing counsel do not subject certain types of medical opinion to sufficiently strict statistical standards. Specifically, he shows that evidence based on: (i) the expert’s “experience,” (ii) the expert’s interpretation of third party statistics, or (iii) the expert’s understanding of published statistical reports may be unreliable. In this article, he provides examples of how statistical evidence may fail to meet the standards expected by the courts; and he offers suggestions about how counsel might respond to these deficiencies.
-
Using family background to Predict
Educational Attainment in Canada
- Autumn 2004 Expert Witness (9.3)
- When a minor has suffered a serious injury, it is necessary to predict what the income level of the plaintiff would have been in the absence of that injury. In most cases, this is done by projecting an education level for the plaintiff and using census statistics to project the average income for that education level. This article examines some of the factors that can be used to predict a child’s eventual educational attainment.
-
The Impact of the “Net
Income” Provisions of the Insurance Amendment Act,
2003
- Summer 2004 Expert Witness (9.2)
- The article examines the implications of the changes to section 626.1 of the Insurance Act that were introduced in The Insurance Amendment Act, 2003. Dr. Bruce argues that these changes will: (i) require that income taxes be calculated for every year of both the with-accident and without-accident income streams in all personal injury cases; and (ii) raise the strong possibility that the courts will allow income tax “gross ups” on awards for loss of earnings. He also shows how the income tax gross up is calculated and estimates the overall impact of the revisions on personal injury awards; and he argues that those revisions will have no effect on the manner in which CPP premiums have been treated in Alberta.
-
Forecasting the Rate of Growth of
Real Wages (Productivity)
- Spring 2004 Expert Witness (9.1)
- Christopher Bruce summarises the most recent theoretical and empirical evidence concerning one of the most controversial, and poorly-understood, components of the calculation of future earnings – the so-called “productivity factor.” He notes that, although the observed rate of increase in earnings is tied to the rate of increase in labour productivity over the very long run, in shorter periods the two rates may differ if there is a significant increase or decrease in the supply of labour. Specifically, he reports that most economists now believe that the slow down in “real” wage growth (the rate of growth in excess of the rate of inflation) in the 1980s and 1990s occurred because of the increase in labour supply that came with the influx of “baby boomers.” That the baby boom is now working its way through the system implies, therefore, that the rate of growth of real wages will increase significantly in the next two decades.
-
Policies to deal with rising
premiums
- Winter 2003 Expert Witness (8.4)
- This article investigates a number of government policies that have been suggested for reducing automobile insurance premiums.
-
Why have automobile insurance
premiums been rising?
- Winter 2003 Expert Witness (8.4)
- This article attempts to identify the causes of the dramatic increases in automobile insurance premiums that have been reported over the last two years.
-
Economica’s Privacy Policy
- Autumn 2003 Expert Witness (8.3)
- This article provides a brief description of Economica’s privacy policy in light of Alberta’s Personal Information Protection Act.
-
How are Automobile Insurance
Premiums Determined?
- Autumn 2003 Expert Witness (8.3)
- In this article Christopher Bruce Christopher Bruce provides a brief introduction to the process by which automobile insurance premiums are determined. He discusses actuarial rating, rating classes, and experience rating.
-
Experience-Rating of Automobile
Insurance: A Good Idea that Won't Work
- Summer 2003 Expert Witness (8.2)
- In this article Christopher Bruce identifies some of the weaknesses of legislation that requires automobile insurance companies to use “experience rating” – a system in which the only factor that determines your premiums is your driving record.
-
The impact of parental divorce or
death on adolescents' education & earnings
- Summer 2003 Expert Witness (8.2)
- In this article Christopher Bruce and Mohamed Amery survey recent research concerning the impact that the death or divorce of a parent will have on the lifetime earning capacity of children.
-
Selecting the Discount Rate –
An Update
- Spring 2003 Expert Witness (8.1)
- This article extends the work done by us in issues 5(3) and 6(4) of The Expert Witness, we conclude that it would be appropriate to revise our existing 2½ and 3½ percent two-part forecast of real interest rates. We propose to use a rate of 2¼ percent for the first five years of all calculations. For all subsequent years we propose to use a rate of 3¼ percent.
-
Duty to Care for Orphaned Minors
- Summer 2002 Expert Witness (7.2)
- In this article Christopher Bruce considers cases in which the courts have been asked to calculate the loss of dependency of orphaned minors – who have been taken into the care of close relatives. The important issue that is raised by this arrangement is whether the expenditures incurred by the surrogate parents should be set off against the children’s loss of dependency on their natural parent(s).
-
The Connection between Labour
Productivity and Wages
- Summer 2002 Expert Witness (7.2)
- In this article Christopher Bruce examines the theory and evidence behind the assertion that wage growth among workers in a specific industry can be linked to the productivity growth of those workers. He finds that there are sound theoretical reasons for predicting that there will be very little correlation between an industry’s productivity growth and its wage growth. He also finds that the empirical evidence supports this prediction.
-
Complementarity in the Retirement
Behaviour of Older Married Couples: An Update
- Spring 2002 Expert Witness (7.1)
- In this article Daryck Riddell and Christopher Bruce examine the tendency of workers to make their retirement decisions based on the retirement decisions of their spouses. That is, if a 57 year-old woman’s husband has already retired, that could indicate that she will retire earlier than would otherwise have been predicted. Mr. Riddell and Dr. Bruce report on three hypotheses concerning the likelihood that the retirement ages of spouses will be correlated.
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Destruction of evidence
- Winter 2001/02 Expert Witness (6.4)
- In this
article Christopher Bruce discusses situations in which
information required to establish negligence remains in
the possession of one of the parties. In the absence of
any penalties, a party who believes that this evidence
may suggest that he or she should be held liable will
have an incentive to destroy the evidence.
The purpose of Dr. Bruce’s article is to develop a model of the legal process that will offer insight into the determination of legal remedies for the destruction of evidence by a defendant. He bases this model on the assumption that the first role of such remedies must be to discourage the defendant from destroying any information that might reasonably be expected to assist the court in the determination of liability.
-
Selecting the Discount Rate –
An Update
- Winter 2001 Expert Witness (6.4)
- In this article the consultants at Economica have combined to review the most recent information concerning the “discount rate;” that is, the rate of interest at which plaintiffs are assumed to invest their award.
-
No-Fault Automobile Insurance
- Autumn 2001 Expert Witness (6.3)
- In this article Christopher Bruce and Angela Tu Weissenberger respond to a recent paper which recommends that Alberta adopt a no-fault automobile insurance system. In their response, Dr. Bruce and Ms. Tu Weissenberger examine the deterrent effect of tort rules; the high cost of no-fault insurance systems; arguments concerning the role of lawyers; evidence concerning the costs of bodily injury claims; and evidence concerning insurance fraud. They identify several weaknesses in the usual arguments that are made in support of a no-fault regime.
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The Deduction for “Expenses
Related to Earning Income” in Rewcastle
- Autumn 2001 Expert Witness (6.3)
- In this article Christopher Bruce and Derek Aldridge discuss the court’s decision in the recent case of Rewcastle v. Sieben. The case concerned an estate claim brought under the Survival of Actions Act. In his decision, Justice Hutchinson introduced a new method for calculating the deduction for “expenses directly related to earning income.” In their article Dr. Bruce and Mr. Aldridge summarise Justice Hutchinson’s method and comment on its broader applicability.
-
The Deduction of Accelerated
Inheritance
- Summer 2001 Expert Witness (6.2)
- In this
article Chris Bruce discusses a requirement established
by the Court of Appeal in its October 17, 2000 ruling in
Brooks v. Stefura. This was that
“accelerated inheritances” should be deducted
from each plaintiff’s dependency award.
The Court did not, however, state clearly what it meant by “accelerated inheritances,” nor did it specify how those inheritances were to be calculated. In this article, Chris offers some observations that may cast some light on these issues.
-
Evidence About “Customary
Practice”
- Spring 2001 Expert Witness (6.1)
- In this article Christopher Bruce summarises some recent research that suggests that doctors systematically err when estimating the standards of “ordinary, or common, practice.” In particular, this research finds that doctors overestimate the speed with which patients are treated and diagnosed in emergency rooms. Hence, they systematically bias malpractice suits in favour of plaintiffs.
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What is Econometrics?
- Winter 2000 Expert Witness (5.4)
- In this article Chris Bruce and Kelly Rathje explain the fundamental principles of "econometrics".
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Incorporating the Effect of Reduced
Life Expectancy into Awards for Future Costs of Care
- Winter 2000 Expert Witness (5.4)
- In this article David Strauss, Robert Shavelle, Christopher Pflaum, and Christopher Bruce argue that the method used by most economists and actuaries for calculating life expectancy among the seriously disabled is flawed. They argue that this method leads to the systematic overestimation of costs of future care. They show, for example, that the costs of care for plaintiffs with cerebral palsy are commonly overestimated by 10 to 15 percent. Strauss and Shavelle are able to provide life expectancy data that correct for this error.
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Ontario's Mandated Discount Rate -
Rule 53.09(1)
- Summer 2000 Expert Witness (5.3)
- In this article Chris Bruce discusses the recent changes to Ontario’s mandated discount rate – as specified in their Rule 53.09(1).
-
Selecting the Discount Rate
- Autumn 2000 Expert Witness (5.3)
- In this article we begin by providing clear definitions of a number of fundamental concepts. These include: real interest rate; nominal interest rate; discount rate; real return bonds; and core rate of inflation. We then summarise the recent statistical data for various measures of inflation and interest rates in Canada. Finally, we use those data to calculate the "real interest" rate and to forecast a long-run discount rate. We conclude from this analysis that that rate appears to be 4.0 percent. However, as there has been some recent volatility in interest rates, we propose to revisit our forecast a year from now.
-
Combining Occupational Options
- Summer 2000 Expert Witness (5.2)
- In this article, Christopher Bruce notes that it is often not clear at the time of trial what occupation the plaintiff would have entered had he or she not been injured, or what occupation he/she will now enter. In these cases, it is common for the vocational expert to offer a menu of possible occupations that are consistent with the plaintiff’s observed interests and aptitudes. In his article, Dr. Bruce looks at how one could combine these occupations (and the corresponding incomes) in order to determine an average, expected income for the plaintiff.
-
The Impact of Disability on
Earnings: Results of the Health and Activity Limitation
Survey
- Spring 2000 Expert Witness (5.1)
- This article
presents some information from Statistics Canada’s
Health and Activity Limitation Survey (HALS). Although
HALS was one of the most comprehensive surveys ever
conducted on the effects of disability, Statistics Canada
has chosen to publish results from that survey in a form
that is not of great value to litigators. Accordingly,
HALS has become one of those sources that is referred to
far more often than it is employed.
Economica has obtained access to Statistics Canada’s electronic records of over 100,000 individual questionnaires from HALS. This has allowed us to estimate income and education levels for each of four levels of disability, for both males and females, cross-categorised by four levels of education and four age groups. In their article, Christopher Bruce, Derek Aldridge, and Kris Aksomitis report the statistics derived from this process. Although the statistics reported there are too aggregated to allow practitioners to estimate damages in specific cases, they can act as a check to see whether the damages calculated in any particular case are "reasonable."
-
Recent Canadian Court Decisions
Concerning the Impacts of Child Sexual Abuse on
Earnings
- Winter 1999 Expert Witness (4.4)
- In this article Christopher Bruce and Matthew Foss discuss the response of the courts to lawsuits for loss of income resulting from sexual abuse. This is the second part of an article that began in the previous Expert Witness – in which Matthew Foss reviewed the academic literature concerning the impact of sexual abuse on the victim’s psychological well-being, education, and earning capacity.
-
The Current Status of Survival of
Actions Act Claims
- Autumn 1999 Expert Witness (4.3)
- In this article Christopher Bruce discusses two trial court decisions concerning the method by which claims for loss of earnings are to be calculated under the Survival of Actions Act. He argues that, although these two decisions clarify many of the outstanding issues in this area, a number of crucial problems remain unresolved.
-
The Role of Expert Evidence
- Summer 1999 Expert Witness (4.2)
- In this article Christopher Bruce examines the difference between experts and lay witnesses. He summarizes some of the leading decisions concerning "The Role of Expert Evidence" from both the Canadian and American courts.
-
On "Format of Expert Evidence of
Economic Loss of Damages"
- Spring 1999 Expert Witness (4.1)
- In this article Christopher Bruce offers a response to a proposed set of guidelines concerning the presentation of expert evidence at trial. The proposed guidelines were drafted by the Civil Practice & Procedure Committee of the Court of Queen’s Bench.
-
Duty of Care
- Winter 1998 Expert Witness (3.4)
- In this article, Christopher Bruce continues with the third in his series on the economic analysis of tort law. Dr. Bruce discusses the "duty of care" issues including the economic reasoning behind liabilities in torts.
-
The Economics of Negligence
Rules
- Autumn 1998 Expert Witness (3.3)
- As a continuation of his series, Christopher Bruce expands on the use of economic analysis in tort law. He argues the economic approach can also be used to cast light on the development of the tort rules of negligence.
-
Applying Economic Analysis to Tort
Law
- Summer 1998 Expert Witness (3.2)
- In this article Christopher Bruce expands the use of economic analysis in tort law. Dr. Bruce identifies the distinguishing characteristics of the economic approach versus the more traditional methods of legal analysis. This is the first of a series of articles to follow regarding the economic analysis of torts.
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Outstanding Issues in the Valuation
of Household Services
- Spring 1998 Expert Witness (3.1)
- In this article Therese Brown and Christopher Bruce wrap up the series of five articles on household services which have been presented in our newsletter. They deal with several of the issues which have not been dealt with specifically in previous articles. Included are the following: the suggested approach when a plaintiff is still able to undertake a particular household activity, albeit more slowly than previously; a discussion of how long to run the loss of household services; and the effect of retirement on the loss of household services.
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BOOK REVIEW: The Expert: A
Practitioner's Guide, (Carswell) 1997
- Spring 1998 Expert Witness (3.1)
- Christopher Bruce reviews this collection of 27 essays concerning expert testimony, each essay having been written by one or more experts in the relevant discipline. The purpose of the book, according to the foreword, is to provide trial lawyers with a basic understanding of both "… the role of the expert in the legal process … [and] … the fundamental concepts of the discipline within which the expert operates.".
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The Role of the Expert Witness in
Developing "New" Law
- Spring 1998 Expert Witness (3.1)
- In this article Christopher Bruce explores the role of the expert witness. He delineates both the advantages and disadvantages to the legal system when an expert adopts a "constructive" rather than a "passive" approach. While recognising the pitfalls with either approach, he points out the potential benefits that may accrue when the specialist is allowed to bring his/her expertise to bear, shedding light upon the complexities of personal injury litigation.
-
D’Amato v. Badger –
Complications Arising when the Plaintiff is a Business
Partner
- Winter 1997 Expert Witness (2.4)
- In this article Christopher Bruce and Scott Beesley bring clarity to some of the complex issues that surround the loss of income which arises when the proprietor of a small business is injured. In particular, they deal with the situation encountered in the recent Supreme Court decision of D’Amato v. Badger, in which D’Amato was a partner in a small business. The issue of compensation became clouded because D’Amato, through his partner’s generosity, was in receipt of a wage post-accident that exceeded the value of his contribution, given his compromised condition.
-
Implications of Duncan v.
Baddeley
- Summer 1997 Expert Witness (2.2)
- This article deals with the impact of the recent Alberta Appeal Court decision in Duncan v. Baddeley. Christopher Bruce discusses the implications of this decision for: fatal accident actions in which there are no dependants; the selection between the Fatal Accidents Act and the Survival of Actions Act; and the valuation of the "lost years" deduction in both fatal accident and personal injury actions.
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The "Lost Years" Deduction
- Spring 1997 Expert Witness (2.1)
- In this article Christopher Bruce deals with the current issue of appropriate compensation for the "lost years" of a plaintiff with reduced life expectancy. One of the approaches discussed includes the view that the plaintiff should be compensated for the lost earnings which remain after the cost of necessities is deducted. Further clarification is required on this issue to establish an estimated cost for "necessities."
-
BOOK REVIEW: John Barnes, Sports and
the Law in Canada, 3rd Edition (Butterworths: Toronto)
1996
- Spring 1997 Expert Witness (2.1)
- In this article Cristropher Bruce reviews a book that examines the state of sports law in Canada.
-
Calculation of the Dependency Rate
in Fatal Accident Actions
- Winter 1996 Expert Witness (1.4)
- In this article Christopher Bruce deals with the topical issue of alternative approaches to the calculation of the dependency rate. He argues here that determination of whether a sole dependency method, a revised dependency method, or a revised cross dependency method is appropriate will depend upon the nature of the marriage of the couple in question.
-
Selecting the Discount Rate
- Autumn 1996 Expert Witness (1.3)
- This article completes a two-part series on the discount rate. In this issue, we review a number of different methods for estimating the future discount rate, explain why we prefer one of them over the others, and apply that method to the selection of a 4.25 percent rate.
-
Damage Calculations in Fatal
Accident Actions After Galand
- Autumn 1996 Expert Witness (1.3)
- This article is Christopher Bruce's second of two reports on the ramifications of the Alberta Court of Appeal decision in Galand Estate v. Stewart. The article in this issue considers the implications of Galand for the calculation of damages.
-
Adjusting Claims for Hours Devoted
to Household Chores
- Summer 1996 Expert Witness (1.2)
- In this article Derek Aldridge reports on evidence which suggests that individuals hired to perform housework may be more productive than most householders. Hence, the number of hours which must be replaced may be less than the number a plaintiff formerly performed.
-
Fatal Accident Cases After
Galand
- Summer 1996 Expert Witness (1.2)
- In this article Christopher Bruce discusses the theoretical arguments raised by Mr. Justice Coté's decision that an estate is able to rely on the Survival of Actions Act to sue for a deceased's loss of earning capacity.
-
Do Sons Follow their Fathers?
- Spring 1996 Expert Witness (1.1)
- In this article Christopher Bruce offers a brief comment on the link between a father's earnings and his son's.
-
Loss of Earnings for Wrongful
Confinement and Wrongful Sterilization: The Case of Leilani
Muir
- Spring 1996 Expert Witness (1.1)
- In this article Christopher Bruce offers a brief comment on the case Muir v. Alberta, in which damages were awarded to the plaintiff because she was wrongfully confined in a home for the mentally defective and was wrongfully sterilized. However, the court denied her loss of earnings claim.
-
What is a "Discount Rate"?
- Spring 1996 Expert Witness (1.1)
- In this article Christopher Bruce provides a simple introduction to a concept which litigators must use every day - the discount rate, or "real rate of interest." This article is the first in a series which will discuss the underlying concepts employed in the derivation of the lump sum values of future streams of losses.