Discount rates
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Selecting the Discount Rate (2017)
Recently Economica undertook a detailed re-evaluation of our recommendations concerning the discount rate. We argue that plaintiffs have available two alternative methods of investing their awards for future losses. In the first, which we call the annuity approach, plaintiffs use their awards to purchase life annuities or structured settlements. In the second, which we call… Continue reading
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Implied Rates of Return on Structured Settlements
In this article, Derek Aldridge and Christopher Bruce contrast our recommended discount rates with those used by one important set of sophisticated investors, the insurance companies who write structured settlements. They find that our recommended rates are greater than those being offered by these companies, suggesting that our rates may be too high. Continue reading
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The Discount Rate Simplified
In this article, which was written collaboratively by Christopher Bruce, Laura Weir, Kelly Rathje, and Derek Aldridge, we begin by setting out a number of criteria that we believe should be met when selecting the discount rate. We ultimately conclude that a portfolio of Government of Canada bonds of varying maturity dates meets our criteria.… Continue reading
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The Discount Rate Revisited (Spring 2008)
This article reports on our latest survey of discount rates. We conclude that no changes to our existing discount rate assumptions are warranted, though a reduction in our long-term rate may be necessary in the future if the observed long-term rates remain significantly lower than our assumed rate. Continue reading
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Forecasting the long-term interest rate on Government of Canada bonds: “market-based” versus “conservative” investment
In the article Christopher Bruce examines a subtle issue relating to interest rates. He explains the difference between the interest rates realised by buying bonds and holding them to maturity, and selling and re-buying before maturity. These approaches will result in different estimates of historical interest rates. Continue reading
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The Discount Rate Revisited (Summer 2006)
In this article Derek Aldridge reports on our latest survey of discount rates, and outlines the revisions we have made to our standard assumptions. We conclude that some small changes to our short-term discount rate assumption are warranted, though we have not changed our assumptions concerning long-term rates. The overall impact on our calculations will… Continue reading
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The Discount Rate Revisited
In this article we review the recent evidence – both statistical and theoretical – concerning the discount rate (or real rate of interest). We review a number of different interest rates for each quarter since 1995 and find that every series has trended downward virtually continuously over the entire period. We then review the theoretical… Continue reading
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Selecting the Discount Rate – An Update
This article extends the work done by us in issues 5(3) and 6(4) of The Expert Witness, we conclude that it would be appropriate to revise our existing 2½ and 3½ percent two-part forecast of real interest rates. We propose to use a rate of 2¼ percent for the first five years of all calculations.… Continue reading
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Selecting the Discount Rate – An Update
In this article the consultants at Economica have combined to review the most recent information concerning the “discount rate;” that is, the rate of interest at which plaintiffs are assumed to invest their award. Continue reading
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Selecting the Discount Rate
In this article we begin by providing clear definitions of a number of fundamental concepts. These include: real interest rate; nominal interest rate; discount rate; real return bonds; and core rate of inflation. We then summarise the recent statistical data for various measures of inflation and interest rates in Canada. Finally, we use those data… Continue reading