Earnings, prediction of
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Selecting the Productivity Factor
One of the most important determinants of the plaintiff’s future earnings is the rate at which those earnings will grow. There are two broad determinants of this rate. First, each individual benefits from increases that arise from gains in experience, promotions, and job changes. Second, as the economy grows, the earnings of all individuals rise… Continue reading
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The Impact of a Mid-Career Change on Earnings
by Derek Aldridge and Christopher J. Bruce Vocational psychologists often recommend that injured plaintiffs retrain for a new occupation. An important question that arises in this situation is whether plaintiffs will start that occupation at an “entry-level” income (say the income of a 25 year-old) or at the income of an individual of the plaintiff’s calendar… Continue reading
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Are Data from the 2011 Census Reliable?
In this article, Dr. Bruce examines the reliability of the 2011 Census income data. In the past, completion of the long form census was mandatory. In 2011, however, completion of this form was voluntary and the response rate decreased. While this created statistical problems concerning the reliability of the data, Statistics Canada had anticipated these… Continue reading
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Mathematical Mistake: Averaging Multiple Statistical Sources Together to Form One “Overall” Average Income Figure
In this article Laura Weir discusses an error that can occur by averaging multiple sources of statistical data in an attempt to obtain an overall average that is superior in quality to the individual averages. Continue reading
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The Impact of Childhood Sexual Abuse on the Educational Attainment and Adult Earnings of Canadian Women
This article concerns sexual abuse cases and the difficult task of determining the impact that the harm has had on the plaintiff’s earning capacity. Christopher Bruce and his colleague from the University of Calgary, Daniel Gordon, found that, on average, sexual abuse is not associated with lower educational levels or lower adult incomes among victims. Continue reading
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Using the HALS/PALS data sets to estimate a loss of income
In the article Derek Aldridge discusses the potential usefulness of Statistics Canada’s HALS/PALS disability statistics when attempting to estimate a person’s loss of income. His opinion is that while one can use these data sets to predict a loss of income, in most cases these predictions are not helpful for our purposes. Continue reading
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Death and Retirement: Allowing for Uncertainty
In this article Christopher Bruce explains how experts deal with situations in which there is uncertainty about the plaintiff’s future income path – such as when it is not known whether the plaintiff will recover from his or her injuries. He also comments on an error that experts often make when dealing with such uncertainty. Continue reading
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Estimating the Impact of Mid-Career Retraining
In this article we investigate an issue we have not seen raised anywhere else in the literature on personal injury damages: When an individual is injured in their 30s or early 40s, and has to retrain for a new career, will that individual begin in that career at a salary equivalent to those of individuals… Continue reading
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Using family background to Predict Educational Attainment in Canada
When a minor has suffered a serious injury, it is necessary to predict what the income level of the plaintiff would have been in the absence of that injury. In most cases, this is done by projecting an education level for the plaintiff and using census statistics to project the average income for that education… Continue reading
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Forecasting the Rate of Growth of Real Wages (Productivity)
Christopher Bruce summarises the most recent theoretical and empirical evidence concerning one of the most controversial, and poorly-understood, components of the calculation of future earnings – the so-called “productivity factor.” He notes that, although the observed rate of increase in earnings is tied to the rate of increase in labour productivity over the very long… Continue reading